The human urge to stay informed in
societies both democratic and dictatorial has been present from the times of
ancient empires. Prior to mass printed text, news spread through conversation
at public gathering places, from drunken tavern conversations to groups of
women gathered around village wells, as well as through letters and
broadsheets. The newspaper, in its
modern day form and breadth of content, came into being in the 17th
century, aided by the spread of the printing press. About two hundred years
later, mass controlled media developed and flourished, relying heavily on
advertising to generate profits.
As the world population continues to
grow exponentially, the demand for news is stronger than ever before. Yet, in
many Western countries, newspaper publishers are struggling to find sustainable
models to create revenue as they are forced to adapt to the digital media age.
The United States is the worst case, as it relied the most heavily on
advertising revenue - 87% of their revenue came from advertising in 2008. In
2011, a former head of strategy at Axel Springer, a European newspaper
publisher, estimated that by 2020 newspaper circulation will have fallen by
50%. Many newspapers are turning
to a part print, print digital format, with some going entirely digital, or
else turning into free dailies, which are especially popular in Europe. Some
papers are adopting a strategy of going to print fewer times a week, such as
Detroit newspapers did in the midst of the economic downturn.
The reality is that much printed
matter in developed countries with high Internet usage rates will become
digital in the coming years - this is a trend that is already in motion as we
can see from the declining figures of the revenue taken in by the print news
industry. By 2020 in these countries, internet news sites and platforms such as
Twitter will supplant a very substantial amount of physical newspaper
circulation - paper being replaced by pixels on a variety of devices such as smart
phones, tablets and computers.
Yet, if you take a global perspective,
newspaper circulation has increased 6% from 2005 to 2009, according an article
in The Economist in 2011. This growth is happening in developing
countries, notably India and China. In 2013, Internet penetration in India is
at 2% compared to over 90% in countries like the United States, and this is one
reason physical newspapers continue to thrive. Indian newspapers have the
largest circulation numbers of anywhere in the world - 330 million daily in
2011. The relatively slow spread of Internet combined with soaring population
numbers and rising literacy rates in India provide fertile ground for continued
growth. In 2009, there were more than 74,000 newspaper being published in
India, with the vernacular press having huge numbers of circulation.
The quality of journalism in papers
like the Times of India, the world’s
biggest English language paper with a circulation of 4 million, is controversial and often openly
partisan. They pursue a strategy of merging the sales department with the
newsroom, much content being paid for by advertisers. Additionally there is a
strong emphasis on celebrity and sports coverage.
It is possible that a lack of authenticity in print will
eventually drive readers to the more democratic world of online publishing.
Competition with digital media platforms will be vigorous as the Internet
spreads, and younger consumers of news will gravitate towards online sources of
information. However, it is safe to say that in 2020, daily printed newspapers
will be flourishing not only in India but also in other developing countries
across Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
Old fashioned printing press, image from Google images
